Economy in numbers
In the first quarter of 2023, GDP surprised and grew above expectations. 2.5% year-on-year, supported by the dynamism of exports and domestic demand, based on the prospects of a greater increase in real disposable income, combined with the maintenance of dynamism in the labor market. In this sense, the Banco de Portugal's projections in its latest Economic Bulletin were revised upwards, with the Portuguese economy growing 2.7% in 2023, 2.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
According to INE, the year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index will have decreased to 3.4% in June 2023 (-0.6 compared to May), with this deceleration being the base effect that resulted in an increase in fuel prices (June 2022). By the end of 2023, a reduction in the inflation rate of 5.2% is expected, 3.3 in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, which is in line with the statutory monetary policy objective defined by the ECB.
In May, the unemployment rate decreased to 6.4% (lower than April and February 2023), with the employed population (4.932 thousand) registering a positive change, compared to the previous month (0.1%). The labor market continues to be robust with low unemployment, despite concerns that rising wages could perpetuate rising inflation.
The war in Ukraine, the evolution of stability in the banking system in the USA and Europe, and the persistent fight against inflation will be the central themes that will influence the monetary policy of the main Central Banks.
